Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 21.00% -60.00% 0.89
1 34.20% -39.00% 1.44
2 47.30% -18.30% 1.99
3 60.50% 2.70% 2.55
4 73.70% 23.70% 3.11
5 86.80% 44.40% 3.66
6 100.00% 65.40% 4.22

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-22 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.89
  • % of original R0: 21
  • % Increase from current: -60

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.44
  • % of original R0: 34.2
  • % Increase from current: -39

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.99
  • % of original R0: 47.3
  • % Increase from current: -18.3

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.55
  • % of original R0: 60.5
  • % Increase from current: 2.7

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.11
  • % of original R0: 73.7
  • % Increase from current: 23.7

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.66
  • % of original R0: 86.8
  • % Increase from current: 44.4

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.22
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 65.4